KeyStone’s Stock Talk Show, Episode 208.

Great to be back with you this week. We have a busy show and Aaron will start with an earnings season review in another Top 10 earnings release segment over the past week including; Redishred Capital Corp (KUT: TSX-V), Proctor & Gamble (PG: NYSE), Badger Meter (BMI: NYSE), Lockheed Martin (LMT: NYSE), and Atlas Engineered Products (AEP: TSX-V). In our YSOT segment I will answer a viewer question on C-COM Satellite Systems Inc.  (CMI:TSX-V), a Canadian micro-cap with a 5% dividend that provides commercial grade mobile auto-deploying satellite antenna systems. The stock is down 48% in the past year and our viewer asks if today is a good time to buy into this cash rich micro-cap. Brett answers a question on Pinterest Inc. (PINS:NYSE), Brennan’s favourite destination on the world wide web. Pinterest, for those unaware, is an online product and idea discovery platform that helps users gather ideas on everything from recipes to cook to great travel destinations. The stock has had a strong 2023, up just over 19% year to date. Brett let’s you know if it is over, under, or fairly valued. Finally, in our YSOT segment, Brennan reviews Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD:NYSE) – the suddenly embattled Belgium based beer giant – in the wake of the “Bud Light” controversy. Is the stock a buy today – headlines say it is down big – but is it really? Brennan will let you know.

Let’s get to the show….I welcome my cohosts – Aaron, and the Killer B’s – Brennan and Brett.

 

C-Com Satellite Systems Inc. (CMI:TSX)

Price: $1.00 – stock is down 48% over the last year.

Market Cap: $42.20 Million

Yield: 5%

Company Description: The company develops and deploys commercial grade mobile auto-deploying satellite-based technology for the delivery of two-way high-speed Internet, VoIP and Video services into vehicles. C-COM has developed a unique proprietary Mobile auto-deploying (iNetVu) antenna that allows the delivery of high-speed satellite-based Internet services into vehicles while stationary virtually anywhere where one can drive.

What is Driving the Share Price Lower?

Q1 FY 2023 revenues dropped 77% to $683,949. The company reported a loss before other income and income tax was $448,020, compared with a Q1 operating income of $802,862 in 2022.

Poor Quarterly Numbers

Management stated that demand for the company’s products is sluggish in the face of these headwinds including economic uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine, inability to sell product due to the embargo, supply chain issues with availability of products customers are requesting to be integrated with the company’s antennas, component shortages and fear of global recession. These factors are all having a negative effect and are reflected in C-Com’s lower than usual revenues in this first quarter.

Our Take:

The positives here include a very strong balance sheet for a business of this size. The company completed Q1 FY 2023 with $17.36 million of cash and marketable securities and basically no debt. 42% of its market cap in cash. The cash allows the company to continue to remain committed to its R&D program as new products are essentially for long-term success including the company  recently announcing that it had received formal qualification for its iNetVu® series antenna products from Intelsat. Intelsat is one of the world’s largest integrated satellite and terrestrial network operators and a leading provider of inflight connectivity (IFC).

But it take more than just cash on the balance sheet to meet our criteria.

While the dividend appears attractive and the company has cash on hand to continue to pay it, we note that operating income has only covered the dividend in 3 of the last 9 quarters. It is true that there is lumpiness to the business, but this is not a sustainable approach long-term. Business will have to recovery to more normalized levels to make a dividend make sense long-term.

While the existing technology, cash on hand and new developments to come may ultimately be worth more than the current share price, without current strong cash flow and, facing near-term continued headwinds, we are not buying C-Com at present. We will revisit it in the future as the macro improves.

This question came in from Ken via email.

 

The stock has been topical this month following a controversial Bud Light commercial (which Anheuser-Busch owns). So lets get into it.

YSOT – PINS:NYSE

  1. Intro

Pinterest symbol PINS:NYSE is an online product and idea discovery platform that helps users gather ideas on everything from recipes to cook to destinations to travel to. Founded in 2010, the platform consists of a largely female audience, at roughly two thirds of its 450 million monthly active users. The company generates revenue by selling digital ads and is now rolling out more in-platform e-commerce features.

Pinterest has had a strong 2023, up just over 19% year to date, trading at roughly $27.32 and a market cap of 18.7 Billion.

2. Income Statement

Looking at the income statement for Q4 2022, Pinterest had 8% revenue growth for the fourth quarter to $877 million and  9% revenue growth for the year to $2.8 Billion.

The company was able to squeak out a GAAP net income of $17 million for the fourth quarter however that was down 90% year-over-year. As well, Pinterest  still had a loss of $96 million for the year. On a per share basis, $0.03 for the quarter and a loss of $0.14 for the year.  Just as a note Q4 is historically the strongest quarter as the company benefits from higher retail spending and therefor ad spend by companies during the quarter.

3. Non-GAAP Metrics

Switching to some non-GAAP metrics. Pinterest’s adjusted EBITDA fell 44% to $196 million and fell 46% to $442 million for the year.

Non-GAAP net income fell 40% for the quarter to a profit of $203 million, and fell 55% for the year to a profit of $426 million. On a per share basis, $0.29 for the quarter and $0.62 for the year.

So, why was Non-GAAP much more profitable?

The big difference is share based-compensation, the only other adjustment in 2022, is amortization of acquired intangibles. Share based compensation added $170 million for the fourth quarter and $497 million for the year. Sharebased compensation adjustment is the sole reason why Pinterest was profitable on a Non-GAAP basis for 2022.

We’ve talked about how share compensation adjustments is misleading in many cases, but in Pinterest’s case they go a step further than many companies reporting non-GAAP earnings removing Share compensation. Pinterest in its Q4 press release announced a repurchase of $500 million in shares. They had share compensation of $497, and could potentially repurchase $500 million effectively removiong the potential benefit of share compensation lower cash expenses, while still reporting in my opinion disingenuous non-GAAP earnings.

Pinterest is by no means the only company who does this, but still should be looked at.

4. Balance Sheet & Cash Flows

On the other hand, the Balance sheet is strong, the company has a strong cash position of $2.7 billion, roughly 14.4% of the market capitalization. With the only debt being operating leases of $229 million, resulting in a net cash position of $2.5 billion

Pinterest has been able to build this large cash position, as it has been consistently operating cash flow positive since 2020 and prior to that issued a $1.6 billion in stock in 2019.

So the company had a big pile of cash from share sales and has been operating cash flow positive since.

5. Looking forward,
The company is looking to expand its margins into 2023 by reducing operating expenses on a non-gaap basis.

Pinterest expects low single digit revenue growth for the first quarter in 2023.

The company does not give monthly active user guidance but has returned to growth year-over-year in the user base after a post pandemic lock-down fall-off. As well, the company noted that it has had the highest Monthly active users compared to weekly average users of 61%, showing deepening engagement on the platform. Just as a quick look at valuation the company is trading at a trailing adjusted P/E of 44 times, which is high for the growth even with the massive boost of removing share compensation.

6. Our Take, the company, the company although has the appearance of non-GAAP and EBITDA earnings it is just too far off of being GAAP profitable at this time for our criteria as well having relatively low revenue growth previously and expected going forward.

Pinterest is releasing their Q1, 2023 earnings later this week on April 27th, so we will be watching for any changes, but for now I’ll open it up to you guys.

 

YSOT

Slide 1

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD:NYSE) – American Depository Receipt (ADR)

Price: $65.52

Market Cap: $114 Billion

Description:

Anheuser-Busch InBev is a Belgium based company which distributes, markets, and sells beer and beverages. Its portfolio of over 500 beer brands includes global brands such as Budweiser®, Corona® and Stella Artois®; Michelob ULTRA®; Bud Light®, and Modelo Especial®. The company’s portfolio contains six of the top 10 beer brands by volume, according to Euromonitor.

Slide 2

In early April, Bud Light partnered with Dylan Mulvaney, a trans woman and trans-activist, to market the beer on social media. But Bud Light enthusiasts voiced their dissatisfaction with the marketing campaign, leading many to, so call, “boycott” the beer.

Headlines erupted that the stock lost $5B in value following the move. And this is true, but the headlines were merely for shock value, as if we measure from its lowest point during April, the stock was only down 5.5%… and it is now down just 2.4% since the outcry began.

Now, Bud Light sales could suffer near term following the news. But personally, I believe that no publicity is bad publicity, and Anheuser-Busch’s beer portfolio is very diversified. So those who are boycotting Bud Light may be un-knowingly supporting the company by buying Corona or a Budweiser.

Slide 3

Recent Financials (Q4 2022)

  • Revenue for Q4 2022 was $14.7B, up 3.5% from $14.2B for Q4 2021.
  • Normalized EBITDA was up 1.3% to $4.95B.
  • Normalized EPS was up 8.9% to $0.98.
  • Cash of $9.97B with debt of $79.91B, providing a net debt balance of approximately $69.94B and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times.

Management noted guidance for Fiscal 2023 with EBITDA expected to grow between 4-8%

and revenue to grow ahead of EBITDA from a healthy combination of volume and price. And indicated that they expect the average gross debt coupon in FY23 to be approximately 4%.

  • PE ratio of 20 times and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10 times.

Slide 4

Let’s put this in comparison with a few of its peers:

 

2023 GuidanceEV/EBITDANet Debt to EBITDA

Dividend

Yield

Anheuser-Busch (BUD)EBITDA expected to grow between 4-8% revenue to grow ahead of EBITDA

10x

3.5x

1.3%

Heineken (HEINY)Op. Profit to grow organically mid-to-high single digits. 11x 2.1x 2.3%
Molson Coors (TAP)Sales growth expected low single-digit. Underlying income low single digit. 11x 2.9x 2.8%

 

My take away here is that Anheuser-Busch trades at a slight discount, is projecting similar growth to its peers, but has higher debt leverage and pays a lower dividend yield..

CONCLUSION

Personally, when it comes to which of the three companies I would invest in between Anheuser-Busch, Heineken and Molson Coors, it’s really a close call. All are projecting moderate growth, have levered balance sheets and trade with similar EV/EBITDA multiples. But I would personally pay the ever-slight premium for Heineken or Molson Coors given their more sustainable net debt to EBITDA multiples, higher dividend yields, and of course…. the most important factor, I drink Coor’s light as my choice of beer…



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